A turbulent period broke out in Iran with the death of Mehsa Emini on September 16, a few days after she was detained by the morality police (Irshad Patrols). The streets of Tehran, where Emini was visiting relatives in the town of Sakiz in the Kurdistan province of Kurdistan, erupted into a series of marches and clashes as rumors spread that she had been killed by the police who detained her. Although the majority of the demonstrations organized at the beginning were mostly peaceful protests, tensions quickly escalated in the streets and there were violent clashes between demonstrators and security forces, resulting in many deaths and injuries. While it is not surprising that mass demonstrations have taken place in Iran in recent years, the fact that this time the demonstrations have turned irreversibly into deep anti-regime protests is something that needs to be scrutinized.

Considering the previous demonstrations, there have been protests in Iran, especially in the last few years, targeting the country's leadership under the discourse of individual rights and freedoms. sometimes around the economy, sometimes around ethno-sectarian identity and cultural rights.  The fact that the streets of Iran have again erupted in the spring of 2022, following the demonstrations in 2017 and 2019, is an urgent issue that needs to be addressed from a number of perspectives. In the meantime, the country held presidential elections in 2017 and 2021, as well as parliamentary elections in 2016 and 2020, with less than a year to go parliamentary elections in March 2024. Moreover, the voter turnout rate, which stood at 42.57% in the 2020 elections, did not exceed 48.8% in 2021, when Ebrahim Reisi was elected president. Therefore, it is quite remarkable that the Iranian people, or at least a significant portion of them, are looking for solutions on the streets instead of going to the polls. The main reason for such a low voter turnout is undoubtedly the electoral system in the country.

How Significant is the Will of the People in Elections?

Without exception, every election period in Iran is agonizing. Iranian voters elect the president and the parliament every four years, and these two elections are always held in different years. Elections are also held every eight years for the 88-member Assembly of Experts, which is composed of religious leaders. In Iran, the president is constitutionally the second highest political authority in the country after the Supreme Leader (The revolutionary guide) and heads the executive branch. Since the Supreme Leader determines the general direction of the country in every sense, the president's authority in this sense is very limited. In other words, the real authority in the country does not rest with the president, who is elected by the voters at regular intervals. Coupled with subjective practices in the selection process of presidential candidates, it is not surprising that voter turnout in Iran has plummeted.

Under Article 99 of the constitution, the Council of Guardians of the Constitution (CPC) oversees the electoral process in Iran. 6 members of the 12-member CEC are directly appointed by the Supreme Leader, while the other 6 members are jurists selected by the Majlis. The CEC, which has the authority to approve or reject candidacy applications, is not obliged to publicize the justifications for its decisions.  The written justifications sent to rejected candidates upon request are rather unconvincing.

Although the number of those who submitted their candidacies for the presidency was quite high in several elections, the number of those approved by the ECEC was very limited in each period. In the 2001 elections, only 10 candidates were approved out of 817 applicants. In the 2005 elections, 8 out of 1014 candidates were ratified, and in the 2009 elections, only 4 out of over 470 applicants were approved.

Why Iranians Don't Go to the Polls?

In the 44 years of the Islamic Revolution, there have been 12 presidential elections in Iran. The table shows the turnout rates in these electoral processes.

Based on this, the lowest turnout rate in the presidential elections in the history of the Islamic Republic of Iran occurred in 2021, when Ebrahim Reisi won the elections. Although turnout rates exceeded 70% in the 2013 and 2017 elections in which Hassan Rouhani, Reisi's two-term predecessor Hassan Rouhani was elected, such a low turnout in the last elections in 2021 indicates that the people's faith in the selection processes of candidates and the effectiveness of the elected president in addressing the problems has weakened.

Graphic: Participation Rates in Presidential Elections in Iran (1980-2021, %)

Source: IRNA 

In the first years of the revolution, the turnout rate in elections was over 60%. Terrorist acts, street protests and the 1980-88 Iraq-Iran War caused Iran to go through difficult times in those years. Despite this, the people showed their faith in the decisive power of elections by showing their trust in the polls.

The Iranian elections in 1993 had the lowest turnout in Iranian history after the 2021 elections. The turnout rate remained at around 50%. This was due to the failure of Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani's government, which came to power in 1989, to meet expectations and respond to the economic and social problems of the people in its first four years. As the income gap between the rich and the poor widened and President Rafsanjani fell far short of bringing the economic prosperity he had promised to the masses, the electorate reacted by not going to the polls.

In the 2017 Iranian elections, the turnout exceeded 70%, which is obviously due to Rouhani's influence. His first four-year term was characterized by improved diplomatic relations with the West and the signing of the Comprehensive Plan of Action, or commonly known as the Nuclear Deal, with the P5+1 countries, which lifted some of the sanctions imposed on Iran and gave the country economic relief. However, in the process, the Rouhani administration faced a confrontation with Supreme Leader Khamenei and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Rouhani's claims that he has been subjected to Khamenei's obstructions while using his powers and the IRGC's moves targeting Rouhani have put Iran's moderate president in tension with the institutional order. During his candidacy in 2017, Rouhani's candidacy was even rejected by the CEC. However, Rouhani was re-elected as president with 57% of the vote against his establishment-backed rival Ibrahim Reisi.

"The 2021 elections went down in history as the elections with the lowest political turnout in Iranian history."

In fact, the establishment used electoral engineering in these elections to pave the way to the presidency for Reisi, whom it had supported in the previous term. In this process, the role of the CEC was crucial, as it blocked the path to candidacy for each of the strong names that could have challenged Reisi. This caused great controversy in Iranian domestic politics. While Khatami stated that the system should be reformed as soon as possible, Rouhani emphasized the need to increase the number of candidates to increase participation and competition. Former Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani, whose candidacy was rejected by the CEC, also criticized the rejection of his candidacy and tweeted questioning the reason for it. Ahmadinejad, who was a candidate but whose candidacy was blocked by the CEC, said that he would show his reaction by not voting in the elections. Indeed, a significant portion of the electorate showed a similar reaction and did not go to the polls. It should also be noted that a large group of voters who did go to the polls showed their reaction by casting invalid votes.

Are the People Who Didn't Participate in the Elections Heading to the Streets?

Iran has witnessed many mass demonstrations in the last half century.  Especially in the period leading up to the 1979 Islamic Revolution, millions of people participated in the demonstrations. In the last 20 years, especially the student protests of 1999 and the Green Movement demonstrations of 2009 indicate that the Iranian people have sought their rights in the streets where they could not find them at the polls.

In the last days of 2017, protests in Mashhad, one of the most important Shiite cities, quickly transformed into anti-regime demonstrations with slogans such as "May your soul be blessed Shah" and "Neither Gaza nor Lebanon, my life is sacrificed for Iran". These demonstrations, which erupted largely because of economic unrest, soon turned into anti-regime protests.

On September 16, 2022, protests over the death of Mehsa Amini quickly spread across the country, particularly in the Kurdish regions. It would not be wrong to say that separatist groups were at the forefront of the slogans in the protests. For example, in Kurdistan Province, slogans such as "Biji Kurdistan" were chanted, while in Tabriz, Turkish slogans such as "Azadlık, Adalet, Milli Hükümet" were chanted, referring to recent history. In addition, the slogans "Jin, Jiyan, Azade", meaning "women, life, freedom", actually describe the demands of Iranian society. These protests point to the demand for rights rather than economic ones. The fact that all Iranian people participate in these protests rather than a certain group of people reveals that there is such a quest throughout Iran.

The conflict between the institutional order and the governments in the administrative sphere in Iran has also reduced the participation of the people in the elections. In Iran, the Supreme Leader has enormous powers, which limits the president's scope of action. This creates a power struggle that is difficult to resolve. In the past, the Supreme Leader has clashed with pro-reform presidents in many areas, especially on foreign policy issues, and with conservative presidents over appointments and division of duties. At this point, the institutional order's narrowing of the president's sphere of action and the election of the desired name to the presidency as a result of electoral engineering led to the argument that the elections in Iran are for appearances.

"The Iranian people, who have experienced this, have shown their lack of trust in the system by not going to the polls or casting invalid votes, especially in the last elections."

Iranians could not attain the gains they wanted with their will and were stuck in the conflict between the institutional order and the presidency. When economic and social problems were added to this, the people's trust in the state decreased and they took to the streets and shouted for freedom. The Mehsa Amini protests raised the issue of the regime's survival.

These protests have been supported by the opposition within Iran as well as outside the country. In particular, the People's Mojahedin Organization and Iranian Crown Prince Mohammad Reza Pahlavi have openly supported and lobbied for the protests. However, as each protest movement in Iran creates an avalanche effect, regime collapse seems unlikely. Iran lacks a leader to coordinate the protests. In addition, there is a lack of opposition to both the crown prince and secular anti-regime organizations such as the People's Mojahedin Organization. In this respect, the Iranian regime's unofficial reforms and moves to meet the demands of the people may lead to a short-term respite, if not an end, to these protests.